Prices going down – price cap

Home » Archives for July 2, 2024Will Octopus prices go up?

 The July 2024 Energy Price Cap and Octopus Energy tariffs.

The Energy Price Cap went down today, 1st July 2024. Lots of people are having some respite from spiralling energy bills.  Octopus Energy responded by lowering its tariffs. The reduction covered everything from its smart tariffs to its more traditional tariffs such as the Octopus fixed and flexible rates.

The obligatory day trip season has begun but we all know that holidays are short-lived and reality looms. The same sadly applies to energy bills, although if there’s a change of government who knows what’s on the horizon? Is there anything we can do to prepare for the winter?

Written by Sarah Chambers.


July Energy Price Cap 2024

Yipee, lower prices at last the news headlines read.  A reduction of 7% is more than welcome. From 1 July 2024, the energy price cap for a typical household that pays by Direct Debit for their gas and electricty bills will go down from  £1,690 to £1,568 per year. However, back in July 2021, it would have been £1,1138. That’s a difference of £430 a year.

Don’t get me wrong we are in a much better place than the summer of 2023. The price cap has been falling from astronomical heights but there’s a long way to go to get to pre-energy crisis rates and I worry for vulnerable customers who can’t pinch their belt in any further.

Will the October 2024 Energy Price Cap push Octopus tariff prices up?

This is where I take a big gulp of breath before considering winter prices.  Octopus today has lowered its tariffs but will these prices continue to fall? Will we see an upward trend as we start turning on the central heating?

The Ofgem assessment period for the October 2024 Energy Price Cap has already started. Ofgem reviews wholesale energy between mid-May and August. The next price cap announcement will be on 27th August 2024. The new rates will come into effect on the 1st of October 2024 and so far it’s not looking that good.

Crystal ball energy predictions.

Cornwall Insight who makes predictions about the energy price cap published a report on the 28th of June 2024.  They predict a 10% increase on the 1st of October.  Their prediction has more weight now we are over a third of the way into the Ofgem assessment period.  They previously predicted a 12% increase so things could change further depending on the wholesale energy market.

Octopus Energy tariffs which follow the price cap will change on the 1st of October. The Octopus Fixed tariff isn’t linked to the price cap. It doesn’t look at the past wholesale energy prices it looks at wholesale prices now and there’s an element of competition thrown in to attract customers to fix an energy rate so there is a little hope if you want to get ahead of the predicted upward curve and lock in a rate that provides more stability for your bills.

Octopus has promised not to keep the best deals for new customers. Ofgem has proposed energy companies could hide the best offers from their loyal customers but Octopus has made it clear that’s a game they do not want to play.

This is what Octopus has said;

  • Octopus commits to fair pricing for all customers and calls for a market focused on innovation, customer service, and efficiency, rather than ripping customers off with Del Boy pricing practices.

Further Ofgem proposals on the standing charge that may impact on energy prices.

Ofgem has also suggested that some of the standing charge costs should be moved to the unit price of energy. The standing charger costs don’t go away. Instead low users will be able to use less and pay less. I applauded trying to make the standing charge fairer but the cost will still exist. It will just be added to the price per kWh you pay for your energy. So if you use more you’ll pay more.

My concern with this particular Ofgem proposal is that vulnerable people who need the heating on or homes that are not energy efficient will end up paying more. There will be winners and losers. There doesn’t seem to be a proposal that gives me that much confidence. Families are going to continue to struggle with a resource that they may have previously taken for granted. This is another reason why an Octopus fixed rate at the moment is a good idea.

I can’t help myself sounding pessimistic about winter 2024/2025 energy prices. I worry about vulnerable homes where energy is now a luxury people cannot afford.

In my own home, I am doing all I can to electrify and generate my energy using solar panels. Now I can see how solar panels can dramatically reduce your energy bills and your reliance on the national grid I can’t understand why the government hasn’t done more to help roll out solar panels to more homes on limited income.  It makes so much sense to me!

There may be hope post the 5th of July 2025. The general election may force the newly elected government to focus on energy bills. There have been suggestions of a social tariff for households on low incomes and ideas floated about moving part of the standing charge costs to general taxation. I think both sound like a good idea but how that will play out I am not sure.

General Election 2024 – What are the political parties proposing to make energy prices more affordable?

The NEA (National Energy Action) have scoured the manifesto pledges of the main political Parties. Here, are the energy pledges from the main political Parties:

Conservative Party

  • Maintain the energy price cap.
  • Review and reform standing charges.
  • Increase efficiency in local markets for electricity.
  • Give households the choice of smart energy tariffs.
  • Invest £6 billion in energy efficiency over the next three years to make around a million homes warmer.
  • Fund an energy efficiency voucher scheme, open to every household in England, to support the installation of energy efficiency measures and solar panels, helping families lower their bills.

Labour Party

  • Deliver a net zero electricity system by 2030.
  • Invest an extra £6.6 billion over the next parliament, doubling the existing planned government investment, to upgrade five million homes.
  • Establish the Warm House Plan to offer grants and low-interest loans to support investment in insulation and other improvements such as solar panels, batteries and low-carbon heating to cut bills.
  • Ensure homes in the private rented sector meet minimum energy efficiency standards by 2030.

Liberal Democrats

  • Introduce a social tariff.
  • Bring in new private rented sector standards of EPC C by 2028.
  • Launch an emergency Home Energy Upgrade programme targeted at low-income households.
  • Introduce a new subsidised Energy-Saving Home scheme with pilots to work out the most efficient combinations of support.
  • A one-off windfall tax.
  • Decouple electricity prices from the wholesale gas price.
  • Eliminate regional differences in domestic energy bills.

How to get the cheapest Octopus Energy tariff ready for winter 2024.

Post 1st July we sit rather more relaxed knowing the heating is firmly off and the summer sun provides more opportunities to be outdoors but it’s a good time to consider your energy needs for the winter. Yes, the new government may swoop in to save us but I would rather be taking steps now just in case.

We will start to see articles, similar to the back-to-school pieces that roll out every year talking about the 3 steps you can take to keep your home warmer and reduce your energy bill. These articles are justified as small DIY jobs around the home can help keep your house a little warmer. They’ll also talk about using less energy and that’s not rocket science. If you use less you pay less. However, if you can have a smart meter there are lots more ways to reduce your energy bill.

You may have already switched off. You don’t want a smart meter and that’s fine. In these circumstances, I would advise considering taking the Octopus 12 months fixed now. You’ll pay 2% more until 1st October but with no exit fees, it’s not a risky strategy to save money. If Cornwall Insight are correct and the energy price cap rises by 10% come 1st October you’ll have made the right decision.  The issue is they predict the increased price will last until the end of March 2025 so taking an Octopus fixed now makes sense.  With no exit fees, there isn’t anything to lose.

Octopus Energy smart meter.

The Octopus Fixed tariff is a good way to try and bag the cheapest Octopus tariff for the winter. However, if you are open to a smart meter or already have one you can get offers and incentives that will help lower your household energy bill.

You can be on any Octopus tariff with a smart meter to get extra offers such as;

  • Octopus Power Up if you live in the South East of England.
  • Fan Club – Reduce electricty costs if you live near one of the Octopus wind turbines.
  • Octopus Saving Sessions if you are happy to reduce your energy use in peak times to help the National Grid.
  • Octopus rewards scheme with offers ranging from free cinema tickets to days out with the kids.

Octopus Smart Tariff where using more energy will save you money.

With an Octopus smart tariff, you will be breaking new ground. It might not be for everyone especially if you need the reassurance that a fixed price can offer but if you are prepared to hustle using more energy in your home at off-peak you can save money on your bill.

Customers’ bills are usually calculated by multiplying the prices per kWh of gas or electricity by the amounts used, plus the dreaded daily standing charge.

Tariffs are either fixed, the Octopus fixed is for one year or they can go up or down according to the energy price cap. But you can put your energy bill into reverse by getting paid to use energy. Then the calculation is different, Octopus will owe you a credit on your bill.

As an example, on Octopus Agile if prices go negative you get paid to use energy. Yes, you get paid for every kWh of energy you use. Taking energy off the grid and into your home goes beyond free it gives you a credit on your energy bill.

The only issue with Octopus Agile is that it can be unpredictable as the weather and demand on the National Grid play a part in reducing energy costs.  If it’s very windy it’s game on. You know your rates around 4 pm for the next day and you can plan when you use appliances that use the most energy such as your washing machine and dishwasher. If you have a home battery even better, you’d fill it up at the cheapest rate possible and run your house from it for the rest of the day.

Are you prepared to change how you think about your energy use to save money? 

So when you read news headlines which tell you the only way to save money on your energy bill is to use less energy that’s not quite true with Octopus. If you are prepared to take on an element of risk and change when you use energy you can get it cheaper or even make money using it. The issue is prices can also go up, especially at peak times between 4 pm and 7.30 pm.

So asking which is the cheapest Octopus Energy tariff can depend on how prepared you are to think about your home energy use and adapt to energy when it’s on offer because the wind is blowing or the sun is shining.

Summary getting ready for the winter Energy Price Cap.

Prices have fallen by 7% but competition is keeping the Octopus Fixed tariff at a very competitive 2% above the July Energy Price Cap. With a rise of 10% looming come October fixing your Octopus tariff makes sense. We can all hope that this prediction falls flat but it is still going to be a hard winter with prices higher than rates pre-energy crisis. Using tradional tariffs just trying to reduce your energy use isn’t enough as you get stung by the standing charge.  You have to grab every offer and incentive to try and reduce your energy bill if you want to keep your bills down.

The summer is definitely over in terms of energy prices but with a little alternative thinking and some Octopus smart incentives you can try to keep your costs down.

customer review on octopus tariffs

About the author: I’ve been a happy Octopus Energy customer for 6 years.

This is me. I can be found on social media as Sarah_Go_Green and I have been an Octopus customer for 6 years. I’m featured on the Octopus website and their YouTube channel as a solar customer. I’ve been on the BBC news, published in the Telegraph for owning part of a wind turbine.

Recently I’ve been in Bloomberg simply for being an energy geek.  I love renewable energy and make it my mission to reduce my family’s home energy bills while improving our carbon footprint. I’ve got around 7,000 followers across X and TikTok where I talk about electrifying my home and reducing my Octopus energy bill. I can help you too!

We all need to change how we use energy.

If anything good is to come out of this energy crisis I hope it’s that we have all stopped to consider how we can use less energy. Millions of people will be doing this in the coming months from pure need rather than desire. It is a miserable state of affairs. It highlights why we need energy security in the UK. We need to both produce and manage our energy better so we rely less on other countries for our gas supply.

Customer review.

My website is not managed or owned by Octopus Energy. It is just a website created by, Sarah Go Green.  I’m a mum, a home energy geek and a very happy Octopus Energy customer.

You can read further independent Octopus Energy reviews on Trustpilot where 89% of customers give them 5 stars.

Posts by Sarah you may find of interest;

Other posts by Sarah you may find of interest;

 

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Intelligent Octopus Flux Tariff.

Home » Archives for July 2, 2024

Intelligent Octopus Flux: Reviewed.

This is how the Intelligent Octopus Flux tariff works with your solar panels and battery storage.  Navigating solar export tariffs can seem daunting but I will run through how much you could earn from your solar electricty and if it’s the best Octopus tariff for your home.

I have been a happy Octopus Energy customer for 6 years and have solar panels and battery storage.

Review written by Sarah Chambers

 

 

Intelligent Octopus Flux explained.

Solar export tariffs aren’t new. Payments for solar electricty generated in UK homes started in 2010 and expanded in 2020. In 2024, most consumers know they can get paid for excess electricty generated on their roofs.  However, Octopus Energy has taken it a stage further with its Intelligent Octopus Flux tariff.

Intelligent Octopus Flux is a smart import and export tariff for homes in the UK with a GivEnergy battery and solar panels.

The Octopus “Intelligent” tariffs allow for home automation.  The Intelligent Octopus Flux tariff eliminates the hassle of exporting excess solar electricty from your home battery. Octopus takes care of it all.

Intelligent Flux is a next-generation solar export tariff that uses Octopus’  Kraken software to optimise your GivEnergy home battery and electricty solar generation. It’s not just designed for exporting the excess solar electricty. Intelligent Octopus Flux helps balance both your imported and exported electricty. It covers all the bases.

With a little Octo magic, your virtual home power station will help the stability of the National Grid, whilst also providing smarter, cheaper greener electricty for your home. 🌍

The element I like with the Octopus “Intelligent” tariffs is that Octopus configures your green hardware to get the best deal for your electricty. This is great if you don’t have the time or are less tech-savvy.

On Intelligent Octopus Flux Octopus will choose the best times for importing and exporting electricty to your home potentially avoiding short-term use of fossil fuels to fill the gaps.

We’ll export the energy you have stored when you’ll make the best return. So you’ll always get the best deal on the sunshine you have stored ☀️ – Octopus Energy.

Am I eligible for the Octopus Intelligent Flux tariff and more importantly do I need it?

To switch to Intelligent Octopus Flux you will need;

  • To be an Octopus Energy customer.
  • Have solar PV and a GivEnergy home battery.
  • A smart meter which provides Octopus with half-hourly readings.
  • A copy of the MCS document for your solar system.
  • Confirmation your local energy network was notified of your installation. *

* This will be a letter or email you got from your energy network after they were notified by your solar installer.

If you haven’t had your solar panels and battery storage installed yet you get a quote from Octopus Energy using this online form. (You’ll also see a lovely video of me on the Octopus website.)

If you receive feed-in tariff payments from Octopus or another supplier, they’ll also need a copy of your (Microgeneration Certificate Scheme) MCS certificate.

The Intelligent Octopus Flux tariff is a beta tariff, and at the moment you will need both solar panels and a GivEnergy battery to qualify for this tariff but hopefully, Octopus will add more batteries soon.  You can vote if you want your battery to be considered by Octopus.

How much will I pay for importing electricty and exporting solar electricity on the Intelligent Octopus Flux tariff?

Intelligent Octopus Flux covers both import and solar export. Unlike its sister tariff Octopus Flux, the intelligent versions of the Octopus Flux tariff not only decide when to sell your solar energy but also allow you to import electricity at a cheaper rate. So you work less for more with the Intelligent Octopus Flux tariff, which sounds like a very cunning plan indeed.

Intelligent Octopus Flux Electricty Import / Solar Export Rates.

From 1st of July 2024.

  • Off-peak (21 hours): 20.13 p/kWh (10% below the Flexible Octopus Tariff.)
  • Peak (4 pm – 7 pm):  26.84 p/kWh (Above Flexible Octopus for 3 hours.)

The Octopus Flexible Tariff is the Octopus default electricty tariff that is always 10% below the current Energy Price Cap. The rates changed on the 1st of July 2024.

For 21 hours of the day, you’ll pay 10% less than you would pay on the Octopus Flexible tariff. Intelligent Octopus Flux is the same price for both import and solar export.  I think Intelligent Octopus Flux has a very impressive solar export rate even before the boost between 4 pm and 7 pm! However, can you beat it if you decide to manually discharge yourself?

Intelligent Octopus Flux Tariff

Octopus Flux v Intelligent Octopus Flux.

  • On the Octopus Flux Tariff, you can have any home battery set up.
  • On the Octopus Flux Tariff, you have to monitor and control import and solar export times via your home battery set-up.
  • On the Intelligent Octopus Flux Tariff, you will need a GivEnergy battery.  (More batteries will be added to the list soon.)
  • On the Intelligent Octopus Flux Tariff Octopus optimises your electricty import and solar export times using their Kraken software. You just watch the magic happen on the Octopus App.

As a comparison between Octopus Flux v Intelligent Octopus Flux, you can see the current rates for the Octopus Flux Tariff and Intelligent Octopus Go below. (The quote is for South Wales)

Electricty Import ratesSolar Export rates
Intelligent Octopus Flux
1st October 2024
Per kWhPer kWh
Off-peak (21 hours)22.04p22.04p
Peak 29.39p29.39p
Octopus Flux
Day rate24.49p13.07p
Flux rate (2am to 5am)14.7p4.63p
Peak 34.29p26.04p
Standing charge is the same for both.62.06p per day

If you have a GivEnergy battery and qualify for Octopus Intelligent Flux the solar export rates are better than on Octopus Flux. If you are going to be using Intelligent Octopus Flux as a seasonal tariff for the spring and summer months the electricty import rates are slightly irrelevant. Because if you produce enough solar energy to fill your battery for use after dark, which will be later in the day you won’t need to import hardly any electricty anyway the only figures that are important are the solar export rate.

 “Octopus Energy continues to unlock a grid system that is green, cheap and easy for customers. Next generation smart tariffs like Intelligent Octopus Flux optimise energy tech in people’s homes – passing on savings to customers while stopping the need for dirty fossil fuel plants at peak times.” – Alex Schoch, Octopus Energy.

Why do I need an MCS certificate to switch to Intelligent Octopus Flux?

The Microgeneration Certification Scheme (MCS) is a standards organisation. If you are looking for a comparison it’s similar to Corgi registered (for gas) but the MCS is for low-carbon technologies. Unlike Corgi where gas fitters have to be registered MCS is not a legal requirement. It is more a mark of quality for heat pumps, solar, biomass, wind and battery storage installation and Octopus has decided to make it a requirement in the terms and conditions.

If you are not sure if your system has an MCS certificate or you just can’t find it you can contact MCS at 0333 103 8130, or email: hello@mcscertified.com.  If you are looking for an installer you can also check if they are listed as MCS certified.

When Octopus receives your MCS certificate they will apply to the Distribution Network Operator (DNO) for an export Meter Point Administration Number (MPAN ) for your smart meter. Once the MPAN is registered by the DNO Octopus can then start paying you for your exported electricity.

Can I get paid for my solar export without an MCS Certificate?

Octopus Energy is launching a trial where no MCS Certificate is required for solar export but this is separate from this tariff where an MCS Certificate is still required.

I double-checked with Octopus on Twitter and here is their response from 5th August 2023.

How do I switch to the Intelligent Octopus Flux tariff?

You will need to switch to Octopus Energy first on their Octopus Flexible electricty tariff and once the switch is complete you can start the tariff switch to Intelligent Octopus Flux. If you use the linked page below to sign up you’ll get £50 credit after your first direct debit payment.  (I’ll also get £50 too so a big thank you if you use my link) As a new customer, you will need to switch to the Octopus Flexible tariff first before moving to any other Octopus tariff.

You’ll need to set up your solar export tariff with Octopus. I would suggest signing up for either Octopus Outgoing or Octopus Flux. Once your solar export is set up, you can request to switch to Intelligent Octopus Flux.

Octopus will send instructions once you have asked to switch tariffs.

How does the Octopus Intelligent Flux tariff compare to other solar export rates?

Octopus is very different from any other energy supplier in the UK. They offer such a wide range of electricty tariffs both traditional and smart that you do need to consider your energy use to find the best combination of electricity import and solar export tariffs for your circumstances. It can seem a little complicated to work out what’s right for you but hopefully, my blog will help.

You don’t need to have your home electricty supplied by Octopus to be on an Octopus solar export tariff but the Intelligent Octopus Flux tariff combines both electricty import and solar export. You can read about other combinations of SEG and Outgoing tariffs on my other solar export review page.

If you want to ask any questions there is a great community on Twitter and you can always tag me @sarah_go_green.Here is a list of some of the traditional expert tariffs and prices just to give you an idea. The minimum rate you would get for export is 20.13p per kWh on Intelligent Flux rising to 26.84p per kWh between 4 pm and 7 pm. (This may vary slightly based on your geographical location.)

An example of Solar Export rates.

  • Octopus Energy Outgoing tariff – 15p per kWh (Have an import tariff too)
  • Scottish Power – 15p per kWh  (Have an import tariff too)
  • Scottish Power – 12p per kWh
  • British Gas – 15p per kWh (Existing customer)
  • British Gas – 6.4p per kWh
  • EDF – 5.2p per kWh (Existing customer)

The solar export rates on Intelligent Octopus Flux are significantly higher as you can see.

Is Intelligent Octopus Flux a good all-year-round tariff for solar export?

The Intelligent Octopus Flux electricty import and solar export rates are very interesting especially if you want a hands-off approach to your home energy system but is Intelligent Octopus Flux for everyone?

You could consider having two tariffs, one for winter and one for the summer. It obviously depends on your home set-up and energy needs but I have written a recent blog about seasonal Octopus tariffs that you may find of interest.

In the winter for example when there are fewer hours of sunshine you may want to top up your battery overnight at a low off-peak electricty rate and then discharge energy from the battery to run your home. Intelligent Octopus Flux offers an off-peak rate of 10% below the Flexible tariff but Economy 7 is much cheaper at night, whilst Octopus Agile if electricty is in abundance will pay you for using and storing energy.  So switching tariffs later in the year may help to reduce your energy bills for the winter period. It just depends on the level of involvement you want to have.

GivEnergy All In One Battery.

If anyone considering buying a GivEnergy battery I have just had the GivEnerg All In One Battery installed by Octopus Energy along with solar panels. (You can read about my first steps towards an Octopus Energy solar and battery installation here.)  If you have solar panels installed already you could also add the GivEnergy battery if you contact a local installer. At the moment there is no VAT on a home battery. GivEnergy has a list of recommended installers on its website.

Having a home battery can help balance the grid making it cleaner and greener.

The chart below shows a day’s electricty use for a home with battery storage and solar panels. The battery is charged at night and discharged throughout the day. The battery works alongside the home’s solar panels to act like a virtual power station.

One of the main benefits of a home battery is being able to import electricty when there is less demand on the National Grid. Even in this example, without any pricing information, you can see that by topping up your battery at night this home has become self-sufficient during the day. This reduces peak demand at times when coal power stations might be forced to come online. For lots of people who are concerned about the environment, this will be a very attractive idea.

It is a win, win if you’re not very techie and want to save money and make a difference. Intelligent Octopus Flux will do all the hard work for you if you have solar panels and battery storage.

There are other Octopus Energy tariffs that could help reduce your energy bills if you have battery storage and solar panels. You must have a look at these tariffs too before making a decision that is right for you.

Should we allow an energy company to control household tech, such as home batteries?

I have added this question as I was contacted by someone who follows my blog today. They are having solar panels and battery storage installed soon but they don’t like the concept of allowing an energy firm to control household gadgets. They worry this will be a slippery slope where energy firms will dictate how and when we use energy. I on the contrary see this as an amazing step forward.

I get emails from lots of people who are buying green tech but worry that they aren’t making the most of it. They don’t fully understand if they have chosen the right tariff or indeed are making the most of the opportunities that Octopus smart tariffs provide. I let Octopus control EV charging at the moment. It’s a similar tariff to Intelligent Octopus Flux but they control my EV rather than a home battery. It is so easy and I know I am using my energy when it is the cheapest and greenest.

I think we need companies like Octopus to shake things up. They need to wake up the industry showing them what is possible whilst also guiding us on the journey. I think the Intelligent Octopus tariff will do that hand-holding very nicely as we all make our own personal attempts to help reduce our carbon footprint and save some money on the way.

Conclusion – How I have decided to maximise my solar export return.

I have a very busy household where I consume a lot of electricity. My 3 teenage daughters are home most of the day and I have an Electric Vehicle.

I haven’t chosen Intelligent Octopus Flux because I prefer the combination of Intelligent Octopus Go and Octopus Outgoing fixed for my solar export BUT every home and everyone’s energy needs are different.

The ratio of electricty import to solar export just isn’t enough to justify the switch to Intelligent Octopus Flux for me but that’s what makes Octopus smart tariffs so attractive, there are just so many options. As my family dynamics change, I can reconsider my tariff choices.

About the author:  I’ve Been a Happy Octopus Energy Customer for 6 Years.

I’m Sarah, and as a mum of 3 daughters, I want to save money and do right by the planet. This led me down a rabbit hole of researching tariffs, smart meters, and renewable options.

You can find me on X and TikTok where I connect with around 7,000 followers looking for practical ways to electrify their homes and reduce energy bills.

Feel free to follow me Sarah_Go_Green and join the conversation – I’d love to hear from you!

I’m also featured on the Octopus website and their YouTube channel as a solar customer. I’ve been on BBC News, Radio Wales, published in the Telegraph for owning part of a wind turbine and had a feature in Bloomberg.

I genuinely want to help you understand your options and make smarter energy choices. It’s that simple, I have become very geeky about my home energy and I can help you too.

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