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Should I Fix My Octopus Energy Tariff Because of the War in Iran, or should I stay on the Energy Price Cap?
When the Iran war kicked off on the 1st March 2026, I, like many households, started thinking about energy bills and what might be coming.
I am just a geeky mum trying to keep my bills down, and I overthink these things. Events like this can ripple through oil, gas, and electricity prices and even affect food, transport, and interest rates, making household budgets feel tighter.
I hope this post helps you make sense of your Octopus Energy options, shows what protections are in place, and guides you through the choices so you can feel more in control. Always check the Octopus Energy website for the most up-to-date information before making a decision.
This website is run independently by an Octopus customer and is not part of Octopus Energy. This article reflects my own views and experience. I may receive a reward if you switch using my referral link. For the latest official information on tariffs, eligibility and terms, please visit the Octopus Energy website.
Updated: 23rd March 2026
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Why Some Households Are Fixing Tariffs Early
Many households are reviewing their tariffs right now. Some are on flexible plans, others on fixed tariffs, and some have smart tariffs for electric vehicles or heat pumps.
The main concern is winter. Even if your tariff does not expire until the colder months, global events can affect energy prices before renewal. Fixing a tariff now can give certainty for winter, while staying flexible lets you benefit if rates drop. At the moment, though, that feels like a distant dream. The Octopus Flexible tariff does offer the option to swap tariffs if prices fall, with no exit fees, which is a useful safety net.
In my household, I decided to refix my gas tariff early as an example. Many families I know are reviewing their energy options, too. The principle is the same for any household—taking action early can help manage winter bills and give peace of mind.
Why the Iran Conflict Matters for Energy Prices
The Strait of Hormuz is a key route for oil tankers. If tankers are delayed or blocked, global supply tightens, and prices rise. At the moment, it is a real mess, and this is exactly why oil and gas prices are climbing. However, there might be a glimmer of hope on the horizon if President Trump’s recent posts on the social media platform X are to be believed.
If a resolution is agreed as suggested by President Trump, then maybe oil will start to flow more freely again, and there will be less stress on global demand, but I fear that even if there is resultion so much damage has been done that it may take months for prices to go back down. It isn’t as easy as flicking on a switch to restart oil production.
Why does the war matter to energy bills in the UK?
Sadly, electricity is linked to gas, so rising gas prices also affect all households, even those that use only electricity. It also affects food production and transport, to name just a few.
Energy bills may not jump overnight, but it is the kind of global event that households need to keep an eye on. Watching the news can feel stressful, and I shudder at the thought of this going on further. With the world already in such a delicate state, another conflict does nothing for stability.
Ofgem is continuously monitoring wholesale energy prices to set the next Energy Price Cap. We already know the rates for April to 30th June 2026, but they are now working on prices for 1st July to 30th September 2026, and the outlook is not the easiest to read.
Analysts also track prices so they can predict what Ofgem might do. Since the start of the war in Iran, predictions for the Energy Price Cap in both July and October 2026 have risen. I am less concerned about July, but unless the situation changes, we may not see the downward movement in prices that households need as we head into October 2026.
These figures are taken from the average predictions from EDF, British Gas and E.on Next’s Price Cap Forecasting Services on the 16th March 2026.
If You Haven’t Fixed Yet, What Should You Do?
For now, there is some protection. Households on the Octopus Flexible tariff benefit from the Energy Price Cap, which keeps rates calculated before the Iran conflict in place until the end of June.
You might be wondering if you should wait to fix your tariff until after 1st April, since prices are dropping. The answer is no. While rates on all tariffs will show a reduction, this is not because energy is suddenly cheaper. The government is removing some costs from energy bills and shifting them into taxation instead. That means your actual energy use is still exposed to global price changes. Fixing now can still give certainty for the colder months.
The next price cap period will run from 1st July to 30th September, and Ofgem will announce the new rates by the end of May. Predictions are showing an 16% increase by the time we get to October. If the war ends, then this will change. It is the uncertainty that is worrying, not for the summer but for the start of winter.
Because energy prices change frequently, this is time-sensitive. Today is the 18th March, and I have not quoted prices. Always refer to the Octopus Energy website before making a decision about fixing or switching tariffs.
The Octopus Fixed is now for 10 months with a £50 exit fee per fuel type instead of £75 exit fee per fuel type. (Quoted in the TikTok below)
@sarah_go_green What should you do? @Octopus Energy fixed v flexible. #energypricesuk #energybills ♬ original sound – sarah_go_green
Why Summer Gives Some Temporary Relief
Even if energy prices rise from 1st July, summer usage patterns make it easier to manage bills.
Longer days mean less need for lighting. Heating is largely off. Cooler showers and warmer temperatures reduce electricity use.
This does not remove the risk. It simply gives households a little breathing room before winter arrives.
Why Winter Is the Real Concern
The bigger challenge is from 1st October onwards, when energy use increases.
Even if the conflict ends quickly, oil and gas prices may not fall immediately. Energy markets tend to rise quickly but fall slowly. Electricity prices are linked to gas, so rising gas costs can affect most households.
This is when bills can really feel the impact, and being prepared is important.
Should You Fix or Stay on the Flexible Tariff?
There is no single right answer. Households can choose based on their own energy use, finances, and what makes sense to them right now.
Stay on the Flexible Tariff
You benefit from the current Energy Price Cap, which protects your rates until the end of June. This allows you to monitor what happens in global energy markets before making a longer-term decision.
Fix Your Tariff Now
You can lock in rates today.
Standard fixed tariffs are usually 12 months, and some smart tariffs for EVs or heat pumps offer the same.
The catch is exit fees. If prices drop later, you may have to pay to leave the tariff. If prices rise, you will be glad you secured a fixed rate.
Even if your home does not have solar panels or an EV, the principle is the same. Review your usage, check available tariffs, and decide whether fixing or staying flexible works best for your household.
Options for Electric Vehicle and Smart Tariffs
For households with an EV or heat pump, smart tariffs can help take advantage of off-peak electricity rates.
Rates and durations vary, so it is important to check the Octopus Energy website for the latest information. This ensures you are making a decision based on current prices and availability.
Why Octopus Energy Makes a Difference
Not all suppliers continue offering fixed tariffs during uncertain times. Octopus still gives households a choice, which is valuable.
You can decide what works best for your home and your finances. Having the option to fix a tariff now or stay flexible matters, especially with winter approaching.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will the Iran war immediately increase UK energy bills?
No. Current prices are protected by the Energy Price Cap until the end of June. Any changes would most likely appear in future price cap calculations.
When will we know if bills will increase?
Ofgem will announce the next price cap in late May, which applies from 1st July to 30th September.
Should I fix my energy tariff now?
It depends on your household, finances, and appetite for risk. Fixing provides certainty, staying flexible allows you to benefit if prices fall.
Is electricity affected by gas prices?
Yes. Electricity in the UK is linked to gas generation, so rising gas costs affect most households.
Are fixed tariffs risky?
They can be. Exit fees apply, so if prices drop, you may be locked in unless you pay to leave.
Is Octopus still offering fixed tariffs?
Yes. They continue to offer fixed options, giving customers the choice to protect their bills if they wish.
